Eta HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT for Citrus and Levy
WTNT34 KNHC 111143
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 44A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020
...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE ETA
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along
portions of the Florida Peninsula today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather
radars near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 83.8 West. Eta is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the
southwest coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of
Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the
Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move
northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early
Friday.
Reports from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is expected to be
near or at hurricane strength tonight as it approaches the west
coast of Florida, with rapid weakening expected after landfall on
Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A University of South Florida COMPS buoy just
southeast of Eta's center recently measured a sustained wind of 49
mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 65 mph 104 (km/h). Doppler radars
indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are located just offshore
the southwestern coast of Florida. Across the lower Florida Keys, a
sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h)
were recently reported at Sand Key.
The minimum central pressure recently measured by the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 984 mb (29.06 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:
Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) on
Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25
inches (765 mm).
West Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm
total accumulations of 6 inches.
North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated
maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and
20 inches in South Florida.
Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on
Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban,
and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of
West and North Florida through Friday.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area by early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by this
afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba for the next few hours.
SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.